Published Friday, June 30, 2017 10:25AM CST
Higher borrowing costs would have far-reaching implications for average Canadians, rate-sensitive industries and the broader economy. Below is a breakdown of some potential winners and losers.
THE BANKS
With the Bank of Canada keeping its main policy rate near rock-bottom levels since the 2008 financial crisis, Canadian banks have found their net interest margins — the difference between the money they earn on the loans they make and what they pay out to savers — under pressure.
“As interest rates have continued to decline, they couldn’t lower their funding costs anymore,” says Barclays analyst John Aiken.
For example, the banks fund much of their lending via deposits, and they don’t want to reduce the interest rate on savings accounts to below zero, Aiken notes. Rising rates will alleviate some of that pressure on their net interest margins.
LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES
Another sector that’s poised to benefit from rising rates is the insurance industry. Life insurance companies have liabilities that are very long term in nature, but their investments tend to be for much shorter terms.
“Therefore, in a rising interest rate environment, you actually get more return on your assets as they reprice than what you had originally factored in when you wrote the contract,” says Aiken.
That being said, the major Canadian life insurance companies have a greater exposure to U.S. interest rates than to Canadian ones, Aiken notes.
HOMEOWNERS
Homeowners with outstanding mortgage debt are likely to see their monthly payments rise — but only by a little.
Rob McLister, the founder of RateSpy.com, says that if the big banks boost their prime rates by a quarter of a point, the typical variable-rate borrower will see their monthly payment go up by about $24. That’s based on an average mortgage of around $201,000, with an average rate of roughly 2.15 per cent, an average contracted amortization period of 22.4 years and a remaining amortization of somewhere between 14 to 19 years.
“One or two rate hikes alone won’t derail the housing train or economy. Nor will it cause a material uptick in defaults or real estate listings,” McLister says.
“Three or more hikes is a different story. Rates that are 75-100+ basis points higher would cause a perceptible drag on sales and add another load to peoples’ already heavy debt burden.”
SAVERS